Is Pablo the cat’s meow? Heisenberg isn’t certain
NCAA Tournament Central
NCAA Interactive Tournament Bracket
Looking at the Seeds, RPI, Pablo and AVCA Poll
It’s down to 16 teams for the 2011 NCAA Women’s Volleyball NCAA Division 1 Championship — including six teams from the B1G (for what it’s worth, the same number as last year). So how did the Selection Committee do compared, for example, to Pablo’s algorithmic ranking system, which is favored by the cognocenti in the blogisphere?
As shown in the chart below, five unseeded teams made it into the Sweet 16:
- Kentucky (RPI #13, Pablo #21, AVCA #16)
- Florida (RPI #20, Pablo #7, AVCA #17)
- Michigan (RPI #23, Pablo #28, AVCA #22)
- Kansas State (RPI #26, Pabla #34, AVCA #36)
- Ohio State (RPI #48, Pablo #32, AVCA #28)
The seeded teams that were bounced were:
- #2 Nebraska (RPI #4, Pablo #5, AVCA #2)
- #6 Northern Iowa (RPI #5, Pablo #15, AVCA #12)
- #11 Stanford (RPI #18, Pablo #25, AVCA #6)
- #14 Tennessee (RPI #9, Pablo #9, AVCA #15)
- #16 Texas A&M (RPI #17, Pablo #12, AVCA #27)
The average RPI for the Sweet 16 teams is 13.81, compared to a 9.0 average RPI for the 16 seeded teams. Of course, having #4 RPI Nebraska get knocked out in the 2nd round, and #48 RPI Ohio State confound the experts (algorithmic and otherwise) tends to throw things off a bit. That (and Kansas State – another ratings outlier that is still standing in the Sweet 16) probably explains much of the differential between the seeded teams’ rankings and the Sweet 16 teams’ rankings.
One thing that struck us is that the average RPI, Pablo ranking, and AVCA poll ranking for the Sweet 16 teams are almost identical — with the AVCA holding them, on average, in somewhat lower esteem. The fact that we don”t have a trenchant explanation for that undoubtedly exposes our total lack of knowledge of Poincaré’s conjecture, super string theory, and Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle (but we’re not sure).
In any event, here’s the Sweet 16 table, organized by Bracket. It’s sortable, by clicking the arrows at the top of any given column.
2011 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16
| Team | Pre-Tournament W-L | NCAA Tournament Seed | RPI | Pablo Ranking | AVCA Poll | Conference | Regional | Sweet 16 | Regional Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 22-4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | Big 12 | Lexington | ||
| Kentucky | 26-5 | unseeded | 13 | 21 | 16 | SEC | Lexington | ||
| Penn State | 23-7 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 9 | B1G | Lexington | ||
| UCLA | 24-8 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 4 | Pac-12 | Lexington | ||
| Illinois | 27-4 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 7 | B1G | Gainesville | ||
| Ohio State | 19-14 | unseeded | 48 | 32 | 28 | B1G | Gainesville | ||
| Michigan | 20-12 | unseeded | 23 | 28 | 22 | B1G | Gainesville | ||
| Florida | 24-5 | unseeded | 20 | 7 | 17 | SEC | Gainesville | ||
| Minnesota | 18-11 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 19 | B1G | Minneapolis | ||
| Iowa State | 22-5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | Big 12 | Minneapolis | ||
| Purdue | 27-4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 8 | B1G | Minneapolis | ||
| Florida State | 24-6 | 12 | 10 | 23 | 21 | ACC | Minneapolis | ||
| USC | 25-4 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | Pac-12 | Honolulu | ||
| Hawaii | 29-1 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 3 | WAC | Honolulu | ||
| Pepperdine | 22-6 | 15 | 16 | 11 | 18 | West Coast | Honolulu | ||
| Kansas State | 20-10 | unseeded | 26 | 34 | 36 | Big 12 | Honolulu | ||
| Average: unseeded teams in Sweet 16 | na | na | 26 | 24.4 | 23.8 | na | na | ||
| Average: seeded teams not in the Sweet 16 | na | 9.8 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 12.4 | na | na | ||
| Average (for seeds 1 through 16) | na | 8.5 | 9.0 | 10.19 | 10.69 | na | na | ||
| Average: Sweet 16 | na | na | 13.81 | 13.69 | 14.25 | na | na |
For the Really Obsessed: Surveying the Field of 64
The table below shows all of the results, rankings, ratings, and other minutiae for the entire 2011 NCAA Women’s Volleyball Tournament field of 64. Enjoy, and don’t be late for dinner.
2011 NCAA Tournament: Field of 64
| Team | Pre-Tournament W-L | NCAA Tournament Seed | RPI | Pablo Ranking | AVCA Poll | Conference | Regional | 1st Rnd | 2nd Rnd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 22-4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | Big 12 | Lexington | W (3-0 vs. Texas State) | W (3-0 vs. Michigan State) |
| Nebraska | 24-4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | B1G | Honolulu | W (3-0 vs. Jackson State) | L (2-3 vs. Kansas State) |
| Illinois | 27-4 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 7 | B1G | Gainesville | W (3-0 vs. Central Michigan) | W (3-0 vs. Marquette) |
| Iowa State | 22-5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | Big 12 | Minneapolis | W (3-0 vs. Milwaukee) | W (3-0 vs. Miami (Fla)) |
| Purdue | 27-4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 8 | B1G | Minneapolis | W (3-0 vs. Morehead State) | W (3-1 vs. Louisville) |
| Northern Iowa | 32-1 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 12 | Missouri Valley | Gainesville | W (3-0 vs. Niagara) | L (1-3 vs. Florida) |
| USC | 25-4 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | Pac-12 | Honolulu | W (3-0 vs. Yale) | W (3-0 vs. Tulsa) |
| Penn State | 23-7 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 9 | B1G | Lexington | W (3-0 vs. Liberty) | W (3-0 vs. Delaware) |
| UCLA | 24-8 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 4 | Pac-12 | Lexington | W (3-0 vs. MdES) | W (3-1 vs. San Diego) |
| Hawaii | 29-1 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 3 | WAC | Honolulu | W (3-0 vs. Northern Colorado) | W (3-1 vs. Colorado State) |
| Stanford | 21-7 | 11 | 18 | 25 | 6 | Pac-12 | Gainesville | W (3-1 vs. Sacred Heart) | L (1-3 vs. Michigan) |
| Florida State | 24-6 | 12 | 10 | 23 | 21 | ACC | Minneapolis | W (3-0 vs. Albany) | W (3-2 vs. Cincinnati) |
| Minnesota | 18-11 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 19 | B1G | Minneapolis | W (3-0 vs. North Dakota State) | W (3-2 vs. Washington) |
| Tennessee | 27-3 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 15 | SEC | Gainesville | W (3-1 vs. Duke) | L (2-3 vs. Ohio State) |
| Pepperdine | 22-6 | 15 | 16 | 11 | 18 | West Coast | Honolulu | W (3-0 vs. Missouri State) | W (3-0 vs. North Carolina) |
| Texas A&M | 22-7 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 27 | Big 12 | Lexington | W (3-1 vs. Lipscomb) | L (0-3 vs. Kentucky) |
| Kentucky | 26-5 | unseeded | 13 | 21 | 16 | SEC | Lexington | W (3-2 vs. Dayton) | W (3-0 vs. Texas A&M) |
| Northern Illinois | 28-6 | unseeded | 14 | na | nr | Mid-American | Minneapolis | L (1-3 vs. Miami (Fla.) | out |
| Cincinnati | 26-9 | unseeded | 19 | na | nr | Big East | Minneapolis | W (3-2 vs. Samford) | L (2-3 vs. Florida State) |
| Florida | 24-5 | unseeded | 20 | 7 | 17 | SEC | Gainesville | W (3-1 vs. Missouri) | W (3-1 vs. Northern Iowa) |
| Western Kentucky | 31-3 | unseeded | 21 | 26 | 24 | SunBelt | Gainesville | L (1-3 vs. Marquette) | out |
| Miami (Fla.) | 25-4 | unseeded | 22 | 20 | 25 | ACC | Minneapolis | W (3-1 vs. Northern Illinois) | L (0-3 vs. Iowa State) |
| Michigan | 20-12 | unseeded | 23 | 28 | 22 | B1G | Gainesville | W (3-1 vs. Baylor) | W (3-1 vs. Stanford) |
| Tulsa | 27-6 | unseeded | 24 | 31 | 31 | Conference USA | Honolulu | W (3-1 vs. Oklahoma) | L (0-3 vs. USC) |
| San Diego | 27-4 | unseeded | 25 | 24 | 20 | West Coast | Lexington | W (3-1 vs. LBSU) | L (1-3 vs. UCLA) |
| Kansas State | 20-10 | unseeded | 26 | 34 | 36 | Big 12 | Honolulu | W (3-0 vs. Wichita State) | W (3-2 vs. Nebraska) |
| Oklahoma | 21-11 | unseeded | 27 | 39 | nr | Big 12 | Honolulu | L (1-3 vs. Tulsa) | out |
| Colorado State | 23-5 | unseeded | 28 | 16 | 26 | Mountain West | Honolulu | W (3-2 vs. Oregon) | L (1-3 vs. Hawaii) |
| California | 26-6 | unseeded | 29 | 19 | 10 | Pac-12 | Honolulu | L (2-3 vs. North Carolina) | out |
| Oregon | 21-9 | unseeded | 30 | 14 | 13 | Pac-12 | Honolulu | L (2-3 vs. Colorado State) | out |
| North Carolina | 23-8 | unseeded | 31 | na | nr | ACC | Honolulu | W (3-2 vs. California) | L (0-3 vs. Pepperdine) |
| Western Michigan | 24-8 | unseeded | 32 | na | nr | Mid-American | Minneapolis | L (1-3 vs. Washington) | out |
| Missouri | 21-12 | unseeded | 33 | na | nr | Big 12 | Gainesville | L (1-3 vs. Florida) | out |
| Ball State | 25-7 | unseeded | 34 | na | nr | Mid-American | Minneapolis | L (0-3 vs. Louisville) | out |
| Washington | 23-7 | unseeded | 35 | 21 | 11 | Pac-12 | Minneapolis | W (3-1 vs. Western Michigan) | L (2-3 vs. Minnesota) |
| Dayton | 25-6 | unseeded | 36 | na | nr | Atlantic 10 | Lexington | L (2-3 vs. Kentucky) | out |
| Michigan State | 21-11 | unseeded | 37 | 26 | 30 | B1G | Lexington | W (3-1 vs. Arizona) | L (0-3 vs. Texas) |
| Louisville | 23-8 | unseeded | 38 | na | nr | Big East | Minneapolis | W (3-0 vs. Ball State) | L (1-3 vs. Purdue) |
| Wichita State | 21-10 | unseeded | 39 | na | nr | Missouri Valley | Honolulu | L (0-3 vs. Kansas State) | out |
| Marquette | 23-10 | unseeded | 40 | na | nr | Big East | Gainesville | W (3-1 vs. Western Kentucky) | L (0-3 vs. Illinois) |
| Long Beach State | 23-6 | unseeded | 41 | 18 | 23 | Big West | Lexington | L (1-3 vs. USD) | out |
| North Dakota State | 26-8 | unseeded | 42 | na | nr | Summit | Minneapolis | L (0-3 vs. Minnesota) | out |
| Duke | 21-8 | unseeded | 43 | na | nr | ACC | Gainesville | L (1-3 vs. Tennessee) | out |
| Missouri State | 22-8 | unseeded | 44 | na | nr | Missouri Valley | Honolulu | L (0-3 vs. Pepperdine) | out |
| Middle Tennessee | 21-11 | unseeded | 45 | na | nr | Sun Belt | Gaineville | L (1-3 vs. Ohio State) | out |
| Baylor | 18-14 | unseeded | 46 | na | nr | Big 12 | Gainesville | L (1-3 vs. Michigan) | out |
| Ohio State | 19-14 | unseeded | 48 | 32 | 28 | B1G | Gainesville | W (3-1 vs. Middle Tennessee) | W (3-2 vs. Tennessee) |
| Arizona | 19-12 | unseeded | 49 | 40 | 32 | Pac-12 | Lexington | L (1-3 vs. Michigan State) | out |
| Milwaukee | 25-4 | unseeded | 50 | na | nr | Horizon | Minneapolis | L (0-3 vs. Iowa State) | out |
| Samford | 29-4 | unseeded | 62 | na | nr | Southern | Minneapolis | L (2-3 vs. Cincinnati) | out |
| Texas State | 27-7 | unseeded | 72 | na | nr | Southland | Lexington | L (0-3 vs. Texas) | out |
| Central Michigan | 19-13 | unseeded | 74 | na | nr | Mid-American | Gainesville | L (0-3 vs. Illinois) | out |
| Delaware | 20-12 | unseeded | 79 | na | nr | Colonial | Lexington | W (3-1 vs. American) | L (0-3 vs. Penn State) |
| Sacred Heart | 27-7 | unseeded | 80 | na | nr | Northeast | Gainesville | L (1-3 vs. Stanford) | out |
| Albany | 21-8 | unseeded | 85 | na | nr | Amercia East | Minneapolis | L (0-3 vs. Florida State) | out |
| Moorehead State | 26-7 | unseeded | 86 | na | nr | OVC | Minneapolis | L (0-3 vs. Purdue) | out |
| Lipscomb | 20-10 | unseeded | 89 | na | nr | Atlantic Sun | Lexington | L (1-3 vs. Texas A&M) | out |
| Yale | 18-6 | unseeded | 91 | na | nr | Ivy | Honolulu | L (0-3 vs. USC) | out |
| American | 23-10 | unseeded | 94 | na | nr | Patriot | Lexington | L (1-3 vs. Delaware) | out |
| Northern Colorado | 22-8 | unseeded | 108 | na | nr | Big Sky | Honolulu | L (0-3 vs. Hawaii) | out |
| Liberty | 20-12 | unseeded | 145 | na | nr | Big South | Lexington | L (0-3 vs. Penn State) | out |
| Niagara | 25-8 | unseeded | 148 | na | nr | Metro Atlantic | Gainesville | L (0-3 vs. Northern Iowa) | out |
| Md.-Eastern Shore | 24-6 | unseeded | 195 | na | nr | Mid-Eastern | Lexington | L (0-3 vs. UCLA) | out |
| Jackson State | 29-9 | unseeded | 217 | na | nr | Southwestern | Honolulu | L (0-3 vs. Nebraska) | out |